Why Michael is in the casket...

With the first part of the three episode Lost finale airing tonight, I thought I'd revisit one of the biggest questions since last year's finale: Who was in the casket that Jack visits in the future? Please remember that this commentary does NOT include spoilers -- this is 100% speculative. I look forward to reading some of your comments regarding this matter, but please DO NOT include any information from episodes that have not aired yet. In respect to those who don't watch the show "live" I also request that you give a one day buffer zone for anything we find out from tonight's episode. Thank you.

As I've noted in previous columns, I believe that the man inside the casket is Michael Dawson.

Based purely on that episode, lets take a look at the evidence that supports this theory:

- The article that Jack is reading states that the deceased is survived by one teenage son. Provided that the person is somebody from the flight -- a relatively safe assumption, given that it is of interest to both Jack and Kate -- that points strongly to Michael, as the timeline given would fall within Walt's teenage years. Along with that, the only other major characters with a child are Sawyer (who has a young daughter) and Claire (who is, as you may have noticed, a female).

- The article also indicates that the person committed suicide in New York City. As we all know, Michael resided in the Big Apple before all of the island shenanigans.

- And finally, the funeral took place in a predominantly black neighborhood. This would certainly be an odd occurrence if it was, say, Sayid that died.

We also learned a lot from "Meet Kevin Johnson" that not only support the points above, but also provide some new information.

- The means of death is particularly interesting here. The article notes that the deceased hanged himself in his New York City apartment. As we learned in his season four flashback episode, Michael was suicidal before returning to the island. While his actions on the freighter may, in a sense, redeem himself, it's not outside the realm of possibility that he still cannot forgive himself for what he had done, and, in turn, continue his quest to take his life.

- The fact that Michael was ABLE to commit suicide is equally significant. Recall that when Jack reads the article, he's driven to attempt to jump off a bridge. Considering that he refers to himself as neither a family member or a friend at the funeral, it's unlikely that this death touched his soul in a profoundly deep way. Perhaps instead, Jack was saying to himself "I guess suicide is now possible. Let me give it the old college try." Considering Jack's disheveled state, I don't think it's unlikely that he tried -- and failed -- to kill himself numerous times.

- Along with that, as we saw in "Meet Kevin Johnson," Walt and Michael are not on the best terms. It seemed strange that the obituary would mention a teenage son, but the funeral worker would remark that nobody had shown up. The fact that Walt no longer communicates with his father may answer that ponderable.

- Additionally, Michael's mother also mentions, in the passing, that Michael are Walt are living under aliases. If I remember correctly, she never actually states what that name is (if I'm not mistaken, "Kevin Johnson" was an entirely different alias provided by The Others). It almost felt like the scene went out of its way NOT to use his assumed name, as if they were holding off on that potentially big revelation.

- Jack also seems like the type of person, more than most people on the show, to have the ability to forgive Michael, in death, and recognize that he ultimately tried to help them. He's also the type to not fully forgive, hence his refusal to actually view the body or to refer to himself as a friend.

- At its core, Michael is also the character most likely to get off of the island (he's on the freighter, posing as a member of the crew) without being a member of the Oceanic Six.


So there you have it. What does everybody else think?